Israel’s recent offensive against Iran has escalated the conflict in the Middle East, raising concerns about a potential wider war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his closest advisors are now grappling with critical decisions to navigate this dangerous situation.
They face a series of challenging options. On one hand, they could respond with a new wave of ballistic missile strikes, but Israel has made it clear that any further attacks will be met with immediate retaliation.
Alternatively, Iran could choose to de-escalate and refrain from further military action. However, such restraint risks making Tehran appear weak and susceptible to Israel’s military might, especially with the United States standing firmly behind Israel.
Ultimately, the decision will likely come down to what Khamenei and his advisors believe will best preserve the stability and survival of Iran’s Islamic regime.
Since the spring, Israel has driven the escalation of the conflict, viewing Iran as the primary supporter of Hamas, which was behind the deadly attacks on 7 October last year that left around 1,200 people dead, including Israelis and over 70 foreign nationals. Sensing Israel’s readiness for confrontation, Iran repeatedly signaled its desire to avoid an all-out war, but this did not mean an end to its persistent, often lethal, pressure on Israel and its regional allies.
Instead of direct confrontation, Iran relied on its network of proxies within the so-called “axis of resistance” to strike at Israel. The Houthis in Yemen targeted and disrupted shipping routes in the Red Sea, while Hezbollah launched rocket attacks from Lebanon, displacing at least 60,000 Israelis.
As the conflict dragged on, Israel’s counteractions displaced double the number of people in southern Lebanon. Still, Israel was prepared to escalate further, issuing warnings that Hezbollah must cease its attacks and withdraw from the border region. When these warnings were ignored, Israel launched a series of decisive strikes that disrupted Tehran’s strategy, leaving Iran with few options.
Israel perceived Iran’s hesitance for full-scale war as a sign of vulnerability, which emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his military commanders to intensify pressure on Iran and its proxies. With unwavering support from President Joe Biden, Israel had the backing of extensive U.S. military aid and reinforcements, reinforcing American commitment to Israel’s defense.
On 1 April, an Israeli airstrike targeted part of Iran’s diplomatic facility in Damascus, killing Brig. Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with several senior officers. The U.S. was angered by the lack of prior warning but continued its support, even as tensions escalated further.
On 13 April, Iran retaliated with drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles. Many were intercepted by Israel’s defenses, bolstered by assistance from U.S., UK, French, and Jordanian forces. Biden urged Israel to “take the win” in hopes of preventing further escalation. When Israel limited its response to striking an air defense site, it seemed, for a moment, that the strategy might succeed in de-escalating the conflict.
