A day and a half after Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack on a key Russian border checkpoint and swiftly advanced through the expansive fields of the southern Kursk region, President Putin finally addressed the situation publicly. He described the breach as a “grave provocation,” accused Ukraine of reckless attacks on civilians, and quickly shifted focus to other matters, including preparations for Russia’s “Construction Worker’s Day.”
It wasn’t until five more days had passed and nearly 30 towns had been lost that he vowed to take military action. There was no visit to the area to support the thousands of evacuees, nor was there any declaration of martial law.
In March, following the deadly bombing at Moscow’s Crocus City concert hall, the deadliest attack in Russia for decades, Putin took over 24 hours to make a public statement. Even with ISIS-K claiming responsibility, he persisted in blaming Ukraine and Western nations. Despite the US warning Russia of a possible attack, Putin did not visit the site or meet with survivors in the hospital.
When Evgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, led an attempted mutiny last June, Putin’s reaction was erratic. Initially condemning the revolt as “treachery,” he waited two days before addressing the public again, during which he thanked the Wagner forces for their withdrawal and offered them new military contracts. He even extended an invitation to Prigozhin for tea at the Kremlin. Two months later, Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash in Russia.
The varied composition of Russian forces has hindered their ability to mount a unified defense, with one pro-Russian military blogger noting on August 14 that Ukraine was intentionally creating disruptions and then withdrawing. “This tactic exploits the lack of cohesion among our diverse forces, who don’t always communicate effectively with each other, and have been mobilized to counter this incursion.”
The Russian bureaucratic response has been similarly disjointed. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov established a coordinating council to oversee security in the border regions and recently announced a division of responsibilities among no fewer than five different officials.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, this approach is likely to generate further confusion within the Russian Ministry of Defense and create friction between the MoD, FSB, and Rosgvardia (Russia’s national guard), all of which are involved in the Kursk Oblast. This fragmentation could undermine Russia’s ability to launch a coherent counteroffensive.
Nevertheless, after more than two weeks, there are signs of a more organized resistance. Dmytro Kholod, commander of Ukraine’s “Nightingale” battalion currently in Kursk, told CNN on Wednesday that he has observed a change in the Russian troops’ tactics. “The forces now deployed here are making concerted efforts to push us back,” he said. “They no longer surrender in large numbers. Instead, they engage and fight, though they still surrender when we launch attacks.”
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan concurs that Russia appears to be moving beyond the initial reactive phase, with prospects of a more structured response in the near future. However, he notes that the past two weeks have highlighted Putin’s priorities, which do not currently prioritize his own people.
“It will come down to Putin’s decision: What poses the greater threat to him? The situation in Kursk or the lack of progress in the Donbas. At this point, it seems he considers the failure to advance in the Donbas as the greater risk, prioritizing it over the conflict in Kursk.”
